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that the campaign always said that mitt romney was not comfortable talking about. these kinds of very personal things but is it effective? >> i thought in the debate it was very effective when he personalized things and talked about families he met and people he met an dong it on the road now, too. i think that's smart. voters throughout the campaign -- polls have shown voters find obama more likable person and in the next two debates romney's going to maintain that and increase the likability. they're voting for someone to hear speak for four years and he has to close the gap to win the election. >> people that support the president saying on style and substance we see a different man going after the new mitt romney and surrogates pointing it out, working it in to the stump speech. take a listen. >> now, my opponent is doing a little tap dance at the debate the other night. trying to wriggle out of stuff he's been saying for a year. doing like a -- it was like "dancing with the stars." more maybe it was "extreme makeover." debate edition. >> robert, is that effective? >> i'm not so sure it's
come too far to turn back now. >> eliot: not if you're mitt romney. the g.o.p. contender talked down the jobs numbers and the economy at an abingdon, virginia, rally. >> romney: there were fewer new jobs created this month than last month. the unemployment rate as you noted this year has come down very, very slowly. the reason it's come down this year is primarily due to the fact that more and more people have just stopped looking for work. >> eliot: mitt just can't stand good news on the economy, and neither can his friends on the right, including knocks fuss anchor stuart varney who suspect politics were behind the jobs numbers. >> oh how convenient that the rate dropped below 8% for the in 43 months five weeks before the election. >> eliot: unbelievable jobs numbers, these guys will do anything. can't debate so change numbers. tweeting in regards to today's jobs report, i agree with jack welch, chicago style politics is at work here. more about jack welch and g.e. and accurate numbers more in this show later. we have an interview with cnbc. >> we have a very professional civil ser
they needed to do something. the first thing you're talking about with mitt romney and foreign policy had been this trip to europe, europe, poland, israel, the olympics hadn't gone so well. now they have something to talk about. how did it go? i think the main difference and what they strive to do is paint a contrast between them and the obama administration. the contrast becomes part of their posturing. how are we going to approach foreign policy differently? the posture is that obama's foreign policy is lead from behind, i think mitt romney is really lean forward. we're trying to use our influence in the middle east to -- but really we're trying to use our influence in the region to get the outcomes we want in order to shape the policies that we want, in order to receive the outcomes that we want in the middle east. >> let's be honest, posturing is what we've got here. was his speech heavy on detail or light on detail? >> i'm stealing this from someone on twitter who said the difference between romney and obama on foreign policy is romney says speak louder but carry the same stick. sort of t
'll welcome joe here to talk about mitt romney's big foreign policy speech yesterday. dave zirin, will be along as well. and chris guidener will be in studio as well as well as judd from think progress. but first. >> on this tuesday, professional sky diver felix bum gardner is set to attempt to break his record he will free fall from 120 thousand feet, and break the sound barrier, if all goes well he'll land safely in the new mexico dessert about ten minutes after he jumps. waiting for him will be joel, who holds the record. >> bill: there's one -- i just want to -- you said if all goes well -- >> if all goes well we'll land in the desert -- >> bill: if all doesn't go well what happens? dan? >> well, different outcome. [ laughter ] >> bill: a new cater in the desert. >> he jumps from like a little over 100,000 feet. he has been practicing every day. >> bill: how can you practice for this every day. >> they were saying he is going to suffer lung damage from this. there is no way around it. >> bill: why? >> why do it? >> bill: why do it? >> insanity. >> eric win
morning. she is filling in. the show is also in talks to get michelle obama on the air. ann romney is in the battleground states of virginia. she greeted cancer survivors and campaign volunteers yesterday in chester. peter in sarasota, florida, on our independent line. we are talking about whether political spouses affect your vote. caller: absolutely not. and i am an independent for u.s. senate in florida. and i'me-in candidate, single with a mensa iq, and i'm the owner of two companies. geraldine ferraro was the best candidate running back years ago. vote for pete. host: let's go to our next call in hindsville, alabama, on our democrat line. good morning. no, they don't affect my vote. they are very intelligent women, but i've already made up my mind. so the spouses don't have anything to do with that. host: do they give more perspective and to who the candidates are? radio station in washington, wtop, says -- do you feel the spouses can give more of a human side to the person? caller: they might try, but most people see what the. candidates the. it's kind of hard for them to cha
. romney is talking about is it takes too long to save money. this crisis is right around the corner with medicare. it's going to run out of money within the next ten years or so unless we make some changes. yes, kevin, i like what you're talking about. i agree entirely. the competition model makes sense. but i'm not so sure we have enough time. if you look at medicare, social security and medicaid, by the end of the decade, they're going to take all of our income tax revenues. we're not going to have money left over for anything else we spend money on. >> unless you raise taxes. >> unless you raise taxes. >> unless you raise taxes. >> we need to have more economic growth, i think. there's no question about it. >> so much of what you're saying about what a romney administration will look like is pred kalted on economic growth. what's the estimate you have, in you enact the things that romney wants to enact very quickly, adds 1% a year to gdp growth? >> yes, that's right. that's right. and i think you know, you cover this a lot, firms are sitting on cash. there's all this uncertainty
's talk about taxes next. i'm going to let governor romney explain this for himself. >> well, i've made it pretty clear that my principles are number one, simplify the code, number two, create incentives for small businesses and large businesses to grow. number three, don't reduce the burden on high-income taxpayers. and number four, remove the burden somewhat from middle income people. >> now, you can get all that done in four years we'll have a bran new tax code by 2016. again, it's bold. everybody talks about doing it but nobody's done it really since reagan. finally let's take a look at the deficit. romney is planning to cut a lot more than funding to big bird and pbs. his plans include repealing obama care, reducing foreign aide and privatizing amtrak. you may notny that's that big of a deal. i use it all the time. romney says privatizing it will save $1.3 billion. the budget is made up a lot of small things. however he does it, his goal is to reduce government spending to 20% of gdp. gdp is the biggest measure of everything we produce in society. he wants to do that by the end 6 h
't let barack obama talk as much as mitt romney. well, yes, he did. actually, yes, obama talked more. he just had less to say. >> just like the republicans had a rolling set of excuses for the jobs numbers, so it goes both ways. >> those are conspiracies. >> there's a difference between excuses and full-blown conspiracies. by the way, i can't wait for the readjustment of those jobs numbers. by the way, we may have been off a little bit. >> stop it. oh, stop it. i've been studying that. >> i'll bet number. >> 7.8 is just fine, thank you. the president's debate performance remained a hot topic on the sunday talk shows. former presidential candidate newt gingrich and senior obama adviser david axelrod were asked if obama should have called out romney if he thought his opponent was being dishonest. >> the president of the united states had 90 minutes. now, if he had done his homework, if he had actually prepared, if he had actually studied romney, why didn't he say it? why didn't he take romney head on? first of all, the charge on the tax cuts is just plain wrong and i think virtually every
the same thing with my dad this weekend. >>> talk politics. president obama mitt romney entering the home stretch for the presidential race. the big one will be foreign policy. >> in a few hours mitt romney will layout the vision for how the world should view america. doug luzader is live in washington with more. >> election day four weeks from tomorrow. it is getting very very close. 4 points from four key swing states. in virginia it is getting a lot of attention today. mitt romney will be in is virginia delivering major foreign policy talks. strike while the iron is hot especially in the wake of the attack on the u.s. consulate in libya last month. romney is trying to build a post debate momentum. >> i am convince the you had the chance to hear his answers or nonanswers. now of course days later we are hearing his excuses and next january we will be watching him leave the white house for the last time. >> president obama made a return appearance to california last night. not because that state is at play but because hollywood has heavy hitters with deep pockets. >> we come a long way.
that trains republican candidates for office. in the video of mitt romney talking about the 47% of americans that mr. romney says don't pay taxes. and we will get medicare's growing costs with emily etheridge, a health care reporter from rational quarterly. "washington journal" is live everyday at 7:00 a.m. eastern on c-span. >> will do with the president obama did for the budget. nothing except for borrow and spend. our credit rating was downgraded for the first time in our history. >> we laid out a 4 trillion-dollar debt reduction plan over the next several days. $4 trillion. ladies and online, these guys go against everything. no, i really mean it. not only do they say that they don't like our plan, i get back, you don't like it. but what is your plan? >> thursday, congressman paul ryan and vice president joe biden face-off in their vice presidential debate. you can watch it 7:00 p.m. eastern. both candidates on screen the entire debate. i'll live coverage on c-span, c-span radio, and online at c-span.org. >> a discussion on mitt romney's foreign-policy plan and the foreign-policy and how
that level of detail of governor romney and the president just fine. >> susan, talk about the rhetoric that karen brings up. foreign policy certainly fair game topics of three debates. the vice presidential, two remaining presidential debates. when's the strategy behind today's speech from mitt romney? is he laying a pillar, a foundation of his campaign that may have been tampered with especially as jen brings up going overseas and kind of offended the relationship with british? >> well, the statement of the president's team is very disturbing i think because it's really beyond the pale. you don't go that far before you hear the speech. people don't want to hear that kind of discussion right now. they want to hear about substantive issues and therein i agree with karen and up to governor romney to deliver that but this is a great time politically for the governor to have this speech. he's had a great debate. the speech when the president, there's an opening to attack the president on foreign policy. he's still hurt on the benghazi issue. there's room for him to grow there so that's als
. patti ann: talk about that so-called debate bounce that romney got. looking back historically, when a candidate is perceived to have won a debate, how long does that bounce last? >> there has not really been any record of an event like the debate we had last wednesday night. four years ago there was absolutely no debate bounce. eight years ago very modest because we haven't seen a challenger win so decisively. we do know most bounces in and of themselves last less than a week in today's 24, 7 news environment. patti ann: we'll see what happens after the upcoming vice-presidential debate and beyond. >> it will be interesting. patti ann: yeah, that's for sure. thank you as always for joining us with the very latest numberss. bill: he was telling us last week to wait until monday morn. very interesting how that develops. >>> the break in a case of a missing 10-year-old girl. jessica ridgeway is her name. police say jessica was last seen on friday morning walking to school and then she vanished. police extended their search into the town of superior, colorado. that is a bit north of den
here. talk coming out all of the questions was about ann romney and michelle obama. we're not talking a lot about them. ann romney will be hosting "good morning america" tomorrow. what factors, do you think if any these two women may bring to the election and what we might see over the next four weeks? are they a factor? >> look the general argument out there that, spouses of candidates don't tend to win them elections. they can be a net draw back if they don't do a good job, if they plub or become a center of attention but neither women have been doing that what they have both proven they're very effective campaigners for their husbands an shoring up their messages. in that regard they're adding some ballast to both. campaigns. in particular reaching out to women voters we were just talking to. they're mostly there as sort of side by side to keep their husband's message out there, rather than necessarily winning the campaign on their own. jenna: said before in context today. good if they're not winning the campaign on their own because they're not the ones running for president, righ
from making her own health care decisions. governor romney talks about freedom. but freedom is the ability to determine the care you need when you need it. freedom is the ability to change jobs or start your own business without the fear of losing your health insurance. freedom is the knowledge that you'll no longer be charged more than men for the same health care. or denied affordable coverage just because you've beat cancer. and at a time when women make up nearly half the work force, and an increasing share of family bread winners, these are not just health issues or women's issues. these are economic issues that are vital and affect every family in america. they matter. when -- when a woman is the main bread winner for her family but takes home less pay for the same work, as a man does because she's a woman, that is not right. when my opponent's campaign was asked if he'd support legislation given -- giving women the tools to fight for an equal day's pay for an equal day's work, he said we'll get back to you on that and since then refused to explain his position. you've
for 40 years. ryan did want to talk about his experience because the romney ticket is trying to run as outsiders. he came off like two d. hauser, the guy trying to get into washington, when in fact he's been here for 14 years. >> my candidate for missed opportunities is in the vice president was hectoring paul ryan about you guys take responsibility. what are you responsibility? paul ryan could've said we've tried to take responsibility. we tried to get a major budget deal past, but the president moved the goalpost or the president was unwilling to leave. >> well, i go back to how we started this conversation. i felt during the whole debate on substance anyway, paul ryan was treading water. he just didn't want to make a mistake. he had a lot of soundbites. >> but what i am concerned about -- not concerned about, but what i'm curious about is how the viewer the voter will see that on some of these quickie polls, they are coming out a little closer than i would've thought. i would've thought biden would be a little more -- >> is such a useful reminder. a couple warhorses like ourselve
given no signal that he's even willing to do more. even romney has talked about providing more support for the rebels but it is not really clear. no one is talking about active intervention on the side of syrian rebels. dagen: is there in reason to believe that president obama would do something while we're trying to get out of afghanistan, do something with syria? >> no, the only thing i would watch for is they do transfer the chemical weapons to hezbollah. i think that's a significant red line. if the assad forces were to do that, i think that would precipitate much bigger crisis and draw from the united states. barring that or major attack on turkey, i think we're in a gruesome ugly stalemate. dagen: for how long? >> it could drag on for a year, two years, yes. connell: we mentioned at the top the impact on the presidential election here in the united states would be. you think it will be kind of status quo through november and beyond. >> i think so. again, providing the rebels with things like shoulder fire missiles that could take down the government's helicopter gunships, that wo
tools for the sears craftsman brand. any time people talk about bain these days, they think of romney, but he has nothing to do with this. >> i looked around for benghazi stuff on the cover of "new york times." >> and you're looking right at the bain story. >> that movie really did cause the whole libya thing. we apologized to libyans for the movie -- >> it was 100% wrong. went on "meet the press." >> they got something about rom ne's message about trade. they're going back and looking at bain's china. >> owns an auto manufacturing outfit in china. how he has a piece of it and they're trying to make a case out of it. >> wants more money. >> any more progress on the tax issue? >> i don't. on the issue of benghazi, though it's unrelated, i told you this earlier. i saw the movie "argo" last night. it's coming out i think later this week. >> i say the previews. >> and it was fantastic. and given what's going on in the middle east and what's going on in the world today, if you have an opportunity to see it, it is worth going for friday night dates. it's hardly a date movie. >> ben affleck
was talking about mitt romney's performance. and when you're doing that it tends to be an indicator that that side knows that they lost. >> as we look ahead to the town hall, what did joe biden do whether substantive or stylistic that president obama should adopt? >> well, i think that joe biden re-energized the debate and the base of the party. a lot of people wanted to jump ship were panicking. he went out and really got everyone excited again. the president needs to step up in the next debate and do his job. remember, this is the guy who told hillary clinton that you're -- he can really step it up when he chooses to step it up. he need to get a good night's sleep, don't worry about the altitude and really get in there. >> that is so random. really? that's just really a stretch on that one. anyway, so susan, you can expect the president to be a lot tougher this time around, i know. how should mitt romney approach this debate? do you think he's going to be spending a lot of timan inning openings left by paul ryan? >> i don't think they'll get too much into what paul ryan said in hi
with the lady talking about the foreign policy issue. i think mitt romney is an opportunist. he went overseas and is respected our allies. -- disrepected all of our allies. he is an opportunist. he kisses up to benjamin netanyahu on foreign-policy. i think obama is steadfast. he talked to benjamin netanyahu on the phone for hours. it's not like he has been dodging him. he does not is up to foreign -- does not kiss up to foreign leaders. the talks to them like a leader. in the debate, obama held his head up high and did not have his head down like everybody said he did. as far as the media, i don't think the real voters actually thought that. i think a lot of people just followed what the media was saying as far as what he was talking about -- i mean what the media was talking about when they said obama did not hold his head up high. i think he was very presidential and very calm. i think. mitt romney think. -- i think mitt romney was desperate. host: we will hear the candidates debate on policy in the coming weeks. can you reflect on the earlier part of what he was saying? guest: i think romn
in reality. how can a fast-talking salesman like mr. romney change people's minds and changed their vote? should they not be looking deeper and researched the facts? just talkingy that about energy policy can in any way to create 3 million jobs. you have to look beyond what they are saying and look for the truth, because it's nothing but a snake oil salesman talking. host: do you want to hear them go back and forth tonight interrupting each other or do you want a moderator to step in more and try to control the environment? caller: i would definitely like to see the moderator not let them ramble on. host: so you want time constraints? caller: yes, definitely. i was so disappointed that people are not looking beyond words, because anyone can say anything. host: this was a style section of the washington post this morning about the role of the moderator -- that was about the moderator. the washington times this morning as a piece thishow president obama attended mark their ballotss -- attended martha raddatz's mary stuart ex- husband and some are concerned that she will be biased tonight.
of these debates, the first debate with the president, he talked for 37 minutes, governor romney and told 28 myths. >> eric: running out of time. last word, cal. >> well, if you're look for honesty in politics, it's like looking for a virgin at a house of ill repute. you got plenty of lies on both sides. you got fundraising all over the place. i like to say i'm from washington, d.c. originally where the only politicians with convictions are in prison. >> that's one thing we have in common. i'm from dc, too. >> eric: we'll wait for tuesday night. thank you both. arthel? >> arthel: that was very entertaining. okay. american made -- very good, too. cal had good lines there. american made products, american made products regaining footing overseas. but after suffering the greatest recession since world war two, is the world ready to let down its guard? he he >> eric: they fought for freedom overseas. now they have a new mission here at home. nearly every member of newark, new jersey's latest class of firefighters is a military vet. that's a first there. since world war ii. anna kooiman is live with th
me ask that again. the governor romney talked about reducing tax rates and says he would not balloon the deficit. let me ask your opinion about eliminating the deductions i listed. do we have to eliminate deductions for mortgage interest, state and local taxes, or charitable contributions? >> let me talk to you about one deduction or loophole that i have put legislation in. that is the elimination of loopholes for energy companies and oil companies. my opponent and i both agree that we should eliminate loopholes for energy companies. but she wants to give the revenue to the federal government and i want to give it to the individual at the gas pumps. when you pay for that gasoline, reducing the cost of gasoline. my parents filled up their gas tank, came to my house, and half a day later, that gas pump with 10 cents more a gallon. we can talk about loopholes and one of them is that for the oil companies. but i would give it back to the individual as a reduction of costs. quite where to begin, but let me start with the last thing you said. he introduced the legislation and spent a lot o
, kentucky. that's where it's going to happen. new polls out to talk about. they show that the romney/ryan team is gaining ground where they need it the most, in the swing states. romney is closing the gap in ohio and pulling ahead by a point in virginia. mitt romney is in front in another swing state, colorado. let's get right to cnn's dana ba bash. she's already in kentucky with nap good morning, dana. >> reporter: good morning, soledad. well, paul ryan knows full well the pressure is on him to keep the momentum you just illustrated going. and he's actually been preparing, effectively, i'm told, since the day he was picked by mitt romney. reading, studying as much as he can. he's been doing mock debates with his sparring partner, who is a former solicitor general, the renowned litigator, ted olsen, with hotels from oregon to florida. i spoke to him exclusively, soledad, about his prep and it is pretty clear that this kind of preparation is nothing new for him. telling you what a source i spoke with about how you prepare for hunting. you wash your clothes in unscented detergent, show
seems to be romney's favor. >> let's talk specifically about battleground states, wisconsin, pennsylvania, new hampshire and michigan were all leading in obama and now considered toss-ups. let's start with wisconsin. what is happening there? >> all those four states as you said were switched by real clear politics. in wisconsin that is where paul ryan is from, mitt romney's running mate. that is only a 2-point race in wisconsin. you have to remember, this is state where back in june there was recall election against scott walker. he won the race. he demoralized the democrats. a lot of activists were saying because president obama didn't come strong in favor of the democratic candidate, it demoralized a lot of democrats there. turnout could be very important. if the democratic turnout is not high, you might see mitt romney win that state. >> patti ann: meanwhile, florida where he is romney is enjoying a 2% advantage. we have david plouffe saying, we are going to get the senior citizens and hispanics. we are going to get florida? >> it's a crucial state for romney to win, one
take away, paul ryan spent his dae by the time talking about mitt romney. joe biden spent his debate time talking about joe biden and that's the different. the goal of a vice-presidential debate do no harm and promote the guy on the top job and pretty clear that joe biden thinks he should have the top job. stuart: and a clear question, going into the debate the romney camp clearly had momentum. do you think that debate stopped that forward momentum for the romney camp? >> i really don't. let's say that the snap polls you cited earlier and that joe biden won going away. i don't concede that fact, if it is true, 1988 probably the best performance of a vice-presidential nominee, lloyd benson and george w. bush still won 40 states. and the vice-presidential debate is not really all that impactful to the overall trajectory of the campaign and i think that paul ryan did a good enough job and did enough to promote mitt romney and really mitt romney the person and joe biden admitted that mitt romney is a good man and i think that's what had to come out of debate and paul ryan did what he nee
-to-head again. that is different kind of format. the town hall format. president and mitt romney will talk to individual voters asking questions, that may be a better format for the president. jon: but it does seem that states like ohio and nevada are getting tighter, and you know, with, well the election is four weeks from tomorrow. if that momentum holds for the romney team, it could really be a surprising turn around come election day? >> it certainly could. of course the romney campaign and republican national committee did a big turnout drive this past weekend. they have been doing a lot of that. we've seen it, we've seen it more from democrats. they have been exposing some of their organizational advantages all summer long. we're just now seeing how much the romney campaign is doing in some of these states. you're right, it absolutely could turn around. until we see romney leading in a lot of these averages in a lot of these states the president still has the edge. jon: one of the questions is about voter enthusiasm. one poll says republican enthusiasm, especially post-debate, is muc
with my colleagues. obama is a favorite. i would make it 55-45. it is a difficult path to romney running the presidency. >> let's talk about the debate. based on your contacts, which would run for the president? was he not prepared? how did romney become a super debater? what happened at the white house and what happened with romney? >> i'd like to leno's line that only the nfl replacement rest obama won the debate. the president looked like a team that was overconfident, that did not fear or respect his opponent and did not take it seriously. the romney i saw was someone i had not seen in a long time. it was the romney i saw when he was running for the u.s. senate in massachusetts in 1994, a pragmatic problem solver. i would have put him 35-45 period -- 35-40. he was for the first time being who he was as opposed to pretending some -- to be someone he was not. >> i keep thinking as a new yorker -- of the new yorker cover cartoon. that is what a lot of people came in be leaving. it is hard to understand what happened with the president. he has a cold, distant demeanor. that explains some
presidential election, but is still a massive amount of money, last night, talking to the romney campaign and the big fund-raising dollars the obama campaign was putting up, romney staffers smiled as if to suggest they might top it. >> arthel: and also a statement, romney pushing his tax policy, this weekend, right? >> reporter: of course in the wake of the debate in which the romney campaign it really defined the race, a choice between a dependency society with rising taxes that could hurt the recovery, versus the romney agenda which could cut taxes and rely fully on a smaller government and individual responsibility and entrepreneurial spirit and the romney campaign is attacking ever harder. here's a sample from last night. >> it has been calculated his tax plan raising taxes will cost 700,000 jobs. i will not raise taxes on small business and not raise taxes on middle income families. >> reporter: he will spend a little more time in florida and campaign here tomorrow and he has been doing a bit of debate prep with robhe senator from ohio and his debate sparring... playing the role of m
romney and paul ryan think they're going to talk tough to china but can't handle a little humor by the vice president they need to toughen up a little bit. >> let me clarify for you this point. we heard it from the vice president a couple times last night. i'll play the clip. >> uh-huh. >> the mile class will pay less and people making a million dollars or more will begin to contribute slightly more. >> a million dollars a year more, they'll pay a little more in taxes than people making less than a million. it used to be $200,000 for individuals, $250,000 for couples filing jointly families. now he's talking about a million dollars or more. what's the point there? >> no. the point that the vice president was making is that this tax cut package that mitt romney and paul ryan support absolutely makes no sense because people making over $1 million would benefit by about $800 billion. we still the president, the vice president still absolutely believe that people making over $250,000, their taxes have to go up. we just can't -- we can't afford it. so that pos
that even though the president's been talking about this fantasy, bib lechal middle class tax right that romney and ryan has upon the american people it's the obama plan that has the tax hike in it because there's no way you can pay for all of the spending this administration wants to do without raising taxes and that's why president obama will commit to extending the middle class bush tax cuts for one more year. after that year they'll go up. >> that's factually incorrect. the president has said he wants to make this permanent and he wants to make permanent the middle class tax cuts that bush instituted in the early 2000s. he's extended them to 2013 and then we'll see what kind of grander tax reform plan. listen, those are not going away. >> it's in his ten-year budget. i helped craft the budget. the president wants the middle class bush tax cut. >> he will personally commit to one more year. >> you and i should go back. >> who knows what it's going to be? >> i'll show you the downs. >> let me go back to jennifer on another issue. jennifer, it's funny. i didn't really see mr. biden
, for example, or a secretly taped fundraising talk. >> here is romney, that secret video taping of the 47%. >> reporter: we found one such bettor, mit sloan school student andre gloria. >> the question that you're really answering when you're placing a bet is: who do you think will win? not who will you vote for? >> reporter: gloria is constantly checking betting markets the world over. >> ill have a nice christmas break, thanks to this, yeah. >> reporter: and though this mba student doesn't play in low- stakes iowa, he's very much like her speculators, says joyce berg. our market traders are very different than the general voting population. they're predominantly male, they're wealthier than the average voter, younger than the average voter, better educated than the average voter. >> reporter: and as we take one last look at the iowa market, the quietest bookie in america, one last question-- how accurate have the polls proved to be? >> so we've gone back over time since the '88 election, looked at over 900 polls and compared the iem prediction to the poll prediction and found that in 75
so gladly >> generally, people who are interested in talking about politics love to engage, so they talk to us quite a bit. >> reporter: but since every pollster claims to come up with a scientific random sample eventually, how can the results be romney up by four and obama down by three at the very same time? newly minted phd economist david rothschild works at microsoft research in manhattan. rothschild looks at economic models, state polls and markets. his currently gives obama a 65% chance to win. >> i never sweat too much about any individual poll because there's too much noise. >> reporter: too much noise meaning... >> too much movement. >> reporter: take the so-called bumps - after a vice- presidential pick, or a convention. or take the first presidential debate. say you're a democrat, the morning after. a pollster calls you, you dont want anything to do with it, you're upset, you hang up that phone. they call another guy, the exact same demographics as you because they're trying to fill some sort of demographic hole or whatnot, he's a republican, hes stoked. the same pe
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